Upstream¶
The phase of exploration and extraction of primary energy resources is referred to as Upstream and is described in ETSAP-TIAM using the upstream base year template. To calibrate the base year 2018, the extended energy balance data of the IEA is used. This takes into account the trade, conversion and final energy consumption of primary energy sources as well as raw material reserves and existing upstream technologies for each region. Due to the lack of technological innovations in the upstream sector, investments in existing technologies for future expansion are possible. For each region under consideration, the actual input data from the IEA energy balance is used and compared with the data for the individual sectors: For example, the data for electricity and heat supply in the electricity sector should match the corresponding data for the upstream sector. The total consumption of the energy sources used in the upstream sector at regional level should match the final energy consumption.
When modelling the upstream sector, reserves of fossil fuels- conventional, unconventional and uranium are taken into account. In addition, the available biomass, the potential of renewable energy sources (cf. Potentials for Renewable Energies), mining technologies, primary and secondary conversion processes, emission coefficients, climate parameters and endogenous trading parameters are used. The mining technologies used are part of primary production and serve to convert raw material reserves into usable primary energy sources (gas, coal and oil). These sources are transformed into secondary energy sources such as blast furnace gas, coke oven gas and oil products by means of secondary conversion processes. The use of endogenous trading parameters ensures that unrealizable scenarios are avoided, for example in the event that resources do not meet demand - the result of endogenous trading is then import of the resource.
Energy commodities from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries are combined to cover the demand for energy services in different regions - however, data for the production of fossil fuels, their trade and their downstream use are shown separately for upstream and downstream sectors.
In ETSAP-TIAM, renewable energy sources such as tidal and wave energy, hydropower, wind energy geothermal energy and solar energy are modelled. Biomass plays a special role, as it is in direct competition with fossil fuels. Energy carrier resources are divided into three categories “known reserves and extraction pools”, “extended discovery (reserve growth)” and “new discovery”. For the raw material oil, the model distinguishes between light oil, heavy oil, oil sands and shale oil. Unconventional and non-connected gas reserves are also modelled. Three-stage supply curves are introduced for oil and gas reserves in order to differentiate between resource costs and the amount of energy available. Uranium reserves are modelled together with the fossil energy sources. Due to the fact that no new technologies are expected for the upstream sector, investments in existing technologies are allowed in the model.